Polls show the Maine referendum on marriage equality as a cliffhanger: the most recent (and according to Nate Silver, probably the best) poll shows a dead heat: 48 to 48, although earlier polls have shown the pro-equality (No on 1) side winning by 5 to 9 points. Silver argues that the fundamentals look good for No on 1 to win for two primary reasons:
(2) Pro-gay marriage groups have outstripped their opponents in the fundraising contest by almost two to one.
Polls also show that virtually no one is undecided; Silver predicts that the outcome will turn on the GOTV, election day ground game. For more details, see Lisa Keen's latest article.
Non-Mainers who want a flavor of how the arguments are being framed can listen to a series of TV and radio debates between GLAD's Mary Bonauto and Yes on 1 leader Marc Mutty. The first is tomorrow at 1 pm east coast time -
Monday, October 26th, 7 to 7:30 p.m.
Watch at http://www.wcsh6.com/ or http://www.wlbz2.com/
Wednesday, October 28th, 5 to 6 p.m.
Watch at http://www.wmtw.com/
Thursday, October 29th, 7 to 8 a.m.
Listen at http://www.wgan.com/
Thursday, October 29th, 5:30 to 6 p.m.
Watch at http://www.wgme.com/
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