Maine in home stretch with polls showing tie; Bonauto-Mutty debates begin

by on October 21, 2009  •  In Elections, Marriage, States

Polls show the Maine referendum on marriage equality as a cliffhanger: the most recent (and according to Nate Silver, probably the best) poll shows a dead heat: 48 to 48, although earlier polls have shown the pro-equality (No on 1) side winning by 5 to 9 points. Silver argues that the fundamentals look good for No on 1 to win for two primary reasons:

(1) Maine is one of the least religious states in the nation (see map below); and
(2) Pro-gay marriage groups have outstripped their opponents in the fundraising contest by almost two to one.


Polls also show that virtually no one is undecided; Silver predicts that the outcome will turn on the GOTV, election day ground game. For more details, see Lisa Keen's latest article.

Non-Mainers who want a flavor of how the arguments are being framed can listen to a series of TV and radio debates between GLAD's Mary Bonauto and Yes on 1 leader Marc Mutty.  The first is tomorrow at 1 pm east coast time -

Thursday, October 22nd, 1  to 2 p.m.
Listen at

Remainder of schedule after the jump –>

Monday, October 26th, 7 to 7:30 p.m.
Watch at  or

Wednesday, October 28th, 5 to 6 p.m.
Watch at

Thursday, October 29th, 7 to 8 a.m.
Listen at

Thursday, October 29th, 5:30 to 6 p.m.
Watch at 


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