The final Field Poll before the election, released this morning, shows No on 8 still ahead in CA, but by the slightly narrower margin of 5 points: 49 % opposed, 44 % in favor. The trend, however, is ominous. No on 8 had a 17 point lead at its high point in late September; since then, the Yes side has been steadily gaining. In the last month, the Yes side has picked up 6% and the No side has lost 6%. Today's analysis shows 7% undecided and a little more than 3% as the margin of error.
In other words, after all this time and tens of millions of dollars, the outcome will turn on which side gets out the vote and how conflicted voters resolve their doubts in the last few days before the election. Another scary aspect of this poll is that it shows the majority of those who have already voted being Yes voters, while the majority of those who will not vote until Tuesday being No votes. (Not entirely unexpected: the early voters tend to skew older.) The Field Poll's analysis also made note of a large number of unsure voters among both those who responded yes and those who said they planned to vote no.
The analysis is based on polls conducted of likely voters during the week ending Tuesday, i.e. a week before the election. According to Field, more than 64,000 people, from all 50 states and more than 20 other countries, have donated to one side or the other of the Prop 8 battle.
Meanwhile, how's this for a truly queer development: anti-affirmative action guru Ward Connerly has come out in opposition to Prop 8. It seems that Mr. Connerly got married in 1962, pre-Loving, at a time when many states would have prohibited the union, since his wife is white. It's a funny twist of fate, but I guess his I've-got-mine approach to equality remains intact.