Two new polls released today show Prop 8 gaining support, moving into a position that could spell disaster for marriage equality advocates. The polls reported almost identical results. The first, according to Alex Blaze at Bilerico, was an internal poll for No on 8 by Celinda Lake, which showed Prop 8 passing by a 47 to 43 per cent margin. The second was a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by CBS affiliates:
A new CBS 5 poll finds that California's Proposition 8 has picked up support in the wake of a television ad campaign that features footage of San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom proclaiming same-sex marriage is here to stay "whether you like it or not."
The poll conducted for CBS 5 by SurveyUSA indicates that support for the measure to ban gay marriage has grown among voters in the state over an eleven day period — most especially among young voters.
According to the poll, likely California voters overall now favor passage of Proposition 8 by a five-point margin, 47 percent to 42 percent. Ironically, a CBS 5 poll eleven days prior found a five-point margin in favor of the measure's opponents.
The only demographic group to significantly change their views during this period were younger voters — considered the hardest to poll and the most unpredictable voters — who now support the measure after previously opposing it.
It should be noted that the poll, conducted statewide Oct. 4 and 5 among 670 likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent, and the pollster continued to label the race too close to call — just as it did eleven days ago….